January 4
We are doing fine, staying at home like newly-weds. I walk around town for exercise and observation twice a day, once in the morning and once in the late afternoon. It is dry season now and the sun is very hot during the middle of the day. My biggest problem is funds/time for my cell phone and laptop. Long ago we stopped using the cell phone to call anyone since it uses up the little funds we have very quickly. I have also stopped looking for reports about Kenya on the internet. So we save the time for SMS [short message service] and email. By the way anyone can call or SMS us and we are not charged to receive calls or SMS’s. Yesterday a Friend sambaza’d 500/- to me. [Note: /- = Kenyan shillings.] Then someone sent me a really long article with lots of pictures and over 100/- was wasted in trying to download it. It was like a person dying of thirst dropping his bottle of water. Somehow Malesi sambaza’d 300/- to me today so I am wired for another day or two. Dawn A figured out a way to sambaza funds to my phone from the US which she has done (at a rate of $11.32 for $8.00 of airtime). Unfortunately it has not arrived--we speculate that the people in Nairobi that have to send it on to me are not at work. So we husband the little fund/time we have which is our connection to the outside world. Here at home, we have a better radio and we are able to get BBC so we listen to it on the hour to see if there is any update.
Unfortunately the stalemate continues and there is no improvement today. Nothing is moving and there is even less in the shops. The radio says that the US Assistant Secretary for African Affairs is due to arrive in Nairobi today to try to facilitate talks between Kibaki and Raila.
A Friend from North Kivu, Congo, who was a QPN [Quaker Peace Network] election observer in Nairobi (I guess we can say she stepped from the frying pan of North Kivu right into the fire of Kenya), emailed me as follows:
"The situation is really getting out of hand. For us who are in Nairobi it's terrible. We can't get out of the house lest we get caught up it the riots. The last time I went out was on 28th Dec for the debriefing of the election with the rest of the observers. Since then I have been indoors--it's like being under house arrest."
A Friend in Eldoret and part of Eldoret Friends Church says that there are 62 families--some Kikuyu and some not (meaning that in Eldoret they are attacking people of various ethnicities)--living in the Friends Church. The Friends in Eldoret are doing what they can to help. Friends in Britain are collecting and sending funds to help. But how do we get it from Britain to Eldoret? They are sending it to the AGLI account in England and I can withdraw funds from my own account IF I CAN GET TO A BANK. Then we still have to figure out how to get the funds to Eldoret. He may come in his car to see me: but I won't have any funds available. He also said that houses are still being burned in the countryside around Eldoret. The town is totally shut down except for the queue at the supermarkets where you can buy some things. A relative who lives in Eldoret says that the Kikuyu and Nandi (Kalenjin group) are still fighting and killing each other.
I just talked to a Friend who said that "they" had threatened to burn down her house because she was "sympathizing" with the Kikuyu. She has talked to Malesi who has suggested that we print up T-shirts to identify ourselves.
Another Friend reports that US Embassy officials were supposed to meet with the Americans this morning at the Kisumu Airport--meaning they were unwilling to travel to town to meet the Americans. I guess "fly in, meet, fly out."
As I was on my morning walk, I saw that the internally displaced people (IDP) were being moved from the police station to the Primary School where I was an election observer. I had missed them before because I was looking for them at the police headquarters but they were a few blocks away past the hospital. The police station was filled with trucks, matatus, cars, pick-ups, and a tractor. This included one oil tanker and one long-haul big truck--I assume that they got stuck on the highway at 6:00 PM on Sunday night and decided to park here. Some of the trucks were filled with household goods--particularly bed frames. People were moving their goods to the school. At the school I watched men, women, and children all carrying things into the compound- -clothes, mattresses, firewood, pots and pans, a car battery, etc. It is difficult to know how many people there were, but it was in the hundreds. While much is made of the wealth of the Kikuyu, these people moving into the school looked no more prosperous than the average Kenyan--many, particularly children, were without shoes or wore only flip-flops. At first a cow and a calf were driven, then a herd of 15 cows, a few calves, and about 20 goats, then another of six cows and a calf. A pick-up truck was pushed in (the driver saying he didn't have petrol--or perhaps he didn't want to use petrol when going downhill). It was full of food--mostly maize or maize meal for ugali. I was told that there would be police protection at night.
On my walk I met a policewoman who attends Friends Church. I talked with her a little and moved on. Later I found out something that really has bothered me--I guess because it makes all this abstract violence personal. I was told that on Sunday evening when a nearby town was being attacked by looters, as one of the police sent to quell the rioting, she shot one youth in the leg and hit a second one who perhaps died. I really can't say I blame her for whatever she did since she was just doing her job and I can have no idea what kind of pressure she might have been under. Yet it is unnerving to realize how close I am to the violence. I am certain that some of the people I know in town--for example, the young guys who are at the matatu station, usually drunk, trying to get a tip from the matatu drivers for helping get someone into their vehicles--were probably involved in the violence. But when a violent mob rules, what do you do?
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Report from Malesi, January 2
Dear Friends
Yesterday I was able to leave my house. The previous days had been crazy with police running after youths who kept throwing stones and the police shooting. The gunshots made me think maybe I was in Rwanda or Burundi. Today is better but confusion still reigns in this usually very, very peaceful town.
As soon as the election results were announced youths armed with petrol went for some Kikuyu properties not just here but in Nyanza, Rift Valley, Nairobi and Coast provinces. Many Kikuyu families are in Displaced Camps in police stations around the country. About 400 went to a church in Eldoret and something burning was thrown in. About 30 people died, mainly children. We have received a security alert that we should not travel to Nairobi because the Luo, Luhya and Kalenjim tribesmen are being flushed out and their heads cut around Naivasha, Kijabe, a few kilometers from Nairobi.
You note I have not begun with Happy New year. There is nothing happy here. The intensity of the anger, especially among the youths, is palpable. Young people in Kenya are people who feel disillusioned, discouraged and angry. They came to vote in their thousands because they believed that the change Raila was promising would involve them. They feel cheated. So many of them have been guuned down by the police yet they remain adamant.
So I can only say pray for Kenya. We are going to a very dangerous place. We are going to meet just now to see what we can do especially in terms of the people at the police station. There no public vehicles moving.
Malesi
Yesterday I was able to leave my house. The previous days had been crazy with police running after youths who kept throwing stones and the police shooting. The gunshots made me think maybe I was in Rwanda or Burundi. Today is better but confusion still reigns in this usually very, very peaceful town.
As soon as the election results were announced youths armed with petrol went for some Kikuyu properties not just here but in Nyanza, Rift Valley, Nairobi and Coast provinces. Many Kikuyu families are in Displaced Camps in police stations around the country. About 400 went to a church in Eldoret and something burning was thrown in. About 30 people died, mainly children. We have received a security alert that we should not travel to Nairobi because the Luo, Luhya and Kalenjim tribesmen are being flushed out and their heads cut around Naivasha, Kijabe, a few kilometers from Nairobi.
You note I have not begun with Happy New year. There is nothing happy here. The intensity of the anger, especially among the youths, is palpable. Young people in Kenya are people who feel disillusioned, discouraged and angry. They came to vote in their thousands because they believed that the change Raila was promising would involve them. They feel cheated. So many of them have been guuned down by the police yet they remain adamant.
So I can only say pray for Kenya. We are going to a very dangerous place. We are going to meet just now to see what we can do especially in terms of the people at the police station. There no public vehicles moving.
Malesi
Report 7 - Jan 3
January 3
Dear All,
In Nairobi today it seems that the riot police, using tear gas and water cannons, stopped the rally planned in Uhuru Park to inaugurate Raila as president. The ODM called off the rally, but promised to do it another time.
My wife told me that one of the reasons not many people are going shopping is that there are few goods left in the shops--particularly, I think, food. What is available is sold at inflated prices. The town is running out of "greens" which usually come from near Eldoret. A woman went out to the fields and picked local greens and filled a gunny sack-- these were immediately bought up.
As to Eldoret, I received this news:
"As I speak now, the Friends Church in Eldoret has 62 families who are displaced by some of them having their houses burnt. They have no shelter, food and other basics. As I said earlier, there is no way to enter or exit Eldoret now. The food prices have gone more than triple high. Things are not right here."
And another report on the situation in Kisumu:
"Here in Kisumu, Kenya's third largest city, most of the shops and businesses along the main road have been destroyed and looted. Many are now burned-out hulks, and looters are pulling metal for scrap out of what little structure remains. The transportation network has been disrupted so many goods are no longer distributed. Queues are long to buy flour where people still can. Food and fuel are hard to come by. Cell phone air time has been sold out in Kisumu and elsewhere, so most people cannot even use their phones."
There is a meeting tomorrow morning of all Americans citizens in Kisumu. There were plans for the Americans to evacuate to Uganda at 5:00 AM this morning under armed escort, but this did not work out.
Since fuel travels to Uganda, Rwanda, and North Kivu from Eldoret, these countries are running short of fuel. One friend reports that in Uganda the cost of travel on buses/matatus has doubled.
In Lugari District, in a town far from us, 6 youth were killed by the police yesterday. We have been told that the violence in Turbo was even worse than here. We also heard that the police there have divided into two groups--a Kikuyu group and a group of all the others. If this really begins to happen, then an actual civil war becomes a possibility. The police have been on high alert since the day before the election so they must be getting worn out and tired people are less likely to show restraint.
Nobel Peace Prize winner, Desmond Tutu, from South Africa has arrived in Nairobi, hoping to mediate, but since he made his speech asking for the end of the violence from the ODM offices, I am not sure that he will be acceptable to the Kibaki side.
Tomorrow is another day and we will see what it brings.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Dear All,
In Nairobi today it seems that the riot police, using tear gas and water cannons, stopped the rally planned in Uhuru Park to inaugurate Raila as president. The ODM called off the rally, but promised to do it another time.
My wife told me that one of the reasons not many people are going shopping is that there are few goods left in the shops--particularly, I think, food. What is available is sold at inflated prices. The town is running out of "greens" which usually come from near Eldoret. A woman went out to the fields and picked local greens and filled a gunny sack-- these were immediately bought up.
As to Eldoret, I received this news:
"As I speak now, the Friends Church in Eldoret has 62 families who are displaced by some of them having their houses burnt. They have no shelter, food and other basics. As I said earlier, there is no way to enter or exit Eldoret now. The food prices have gone more than triple high. Things are not right here."
And another report on the situation in Kisumu:
"Here in Kisumu, Kenya's third largest city, most of the shops and businesses along the main road have been destroyed and looted. Many are now burned-out hulks, and looters are pulling metal for scrap out of what little structure remains. The transportation network has been disrupted so many goods are no longer distributed. Queues are long to buy flour where people still can. Food and fuel are hard to come by. Cell phone air time has been sold out in Kisumu and elsewhere, so most people cannot even use their phones."
There is a meeting tomorrow morning of all Americans citizens in Kisumu. There were plans for the Americans to evacuate to Uganda at 5:00 AM this morning under armed escort, but this did not work out.
Since fuel travels to Uganda, Rwanda, and North Kivu from Eldoret, these countries are running short of fuel. One friend reports that in Uganda the cost of travel on buses/matatus has doubled.
In Lugari District, in a town far from us, 6 youth were killed by the police yesterday. We have been told that the violence in Turbo was even worse than here. We also heard that the police there have divided into two groups--a Kikuyu group and a group of all the others. If this really begins to happen, then an actual civil war becomes a possibility. The police have been on high alert since the day before the election so they must be getting worn out and tired people are less likely to show restraint.
Nobel Peace Prize winner, Desmond Tutu, from South Africa has arrived in Nairobi, hoping to mediate, but since he made his speech asking for the end of the violence from the ODM offices, I am not sure that he will be acceptable to the Kibaki side.
Tomorrow is another day and we will see what it brings.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Report 6 - Jan 3
January 3
Dear All,
It is 9:30 AM here in Kenya so I expect most of the people reading this will be happily dreaming in bed.
Today looks like the decisive day, and things don't look good. Kibaki has told the head of the African Union not to come to mediate because this is an internal Kenyan problem. In the doublespeak of the day, this means that Kibaki is not going to negotiate and will enforce his presidency with the police and military. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) plans a massive inauguration of Raila Odinga today in downtown Nairobi at Uhuru Park. One million people are expected to attend. The Government has banned the gathering. BBC reports that riot police have encircled the park standing a meter apart. In other words, this looks like it's going to be a major confrontation. BBC also reports from Mombasa that people have armed themselves with traditional weapons--bows and arrows, machettes, clubs, etc. Kikuyu from hard-hit Eldoret have been evacuated under police escort to Nakuru and Nairobi.
I just took a walk around our town. While most of the shops are open, there are very few people in town. The police are very evident; talking with townspeople about the situation. The police station is filled with vehicles: including most of the town's matatus (which are mostly owned by Kikuyu). Clearly they are parked there for safekeeping.
Directly to the north is a large plume of black smoke. What does it mean? Has another building been burned in the countryside? Or is it just some normal burning of trash, etc? Considering the tension, everything is under suspicion.
A relative came by to see us yesterday. She lives in the rural area outside our town, perhaps a little over a mile away. On Sunday night, after the election results were announced, she told us that she had seen fires and a lot of smoke from the houses which were being burned.
I have no money on my cell phone and only 250/- left on my laptop--about two days worth. I doubt I will get any calling cards today, but I can hope for tomorrow. Thanks, everyone, for your messages. We are doing fine ourselves and we are absolutely in no danger. Two of our nieces (one 4 and one 13) are staying with us.
Please send all your prayers this way.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Dear All,
It is 9:30 AM here in Kenya so I expect most of the people reading this will be happily dreaming in bed.
Today looks like the decisive day, and things don't look good. Kibaki has told the head of the African Union not to come to mediate because this is an internal Kenyan problem. In the doublespeak of the day, this means that Kibaki is not going to negotiate and will enforce his presidency with the police and military. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) plans a massive inauguration of Raila Odinga today in downtown Nairobi at Uhuru Park. One million people are expected to attend. The Government has banned the gathering. BBC reports that riot police have encircled the park standing a meter apart. In other words, this looks like it's going to be a major confrontation. BBC also reports from Mombasa that people have armed themselves with traditional weapons--bows and arrows, machettes, clubs, etc. Kikuyu from hard-hit Eldoret have been evacuated under police escort to Nakuru and Nairobi.
I just took a walk around our town. While most of the shops are open, there are very few people in town. The police are very evident; talking with townspeople about the situation. The police station is filled with vehicles: including most of the town's matatus (which are mostly owned by Kikuyu). Clearly they are parked there for safekeeping.
Directly to the north is a large plume of black smoke. What does it mean? Has another building been burned in the countryside? Or is it just some normal burning of trash, etc? Considering the tension, everything is under suspicion.
A relative came by to see us yesterday. She lives in the rural area outside our town, perhaps a little over a mile away. On Sunday night, after the election results were announced, she told us that she had seen fires and a lot of smoke from the houses which were being burned.
I have no money on my cell phone and only 250/- left on my laptop--about two days worth. I doubt I will get any calling cards today, but I can hope for tomorrow. Thanks, everyone, for your messages. We are doing fine ourselves and we are absolutely in no danger. Two of our nieces (one 4 and one 13) are staying with us.
Please send all your prayers this way.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Report 5 - Background - Jan 3
January 3
Dear All,
I suspect that many of you do not have a clear understanding why a rigged election could produce such violence as burning women and children alive in a church. This email is to give a brief historical background of why Kenya has seemingly so suddenly erupted into ethnic violence.
The British colonized Kenya early in the 20th Century. The nature of colonialism was total control from a strong center. In the case of Kenya, there were British settlers, few in actual numbers, but each controlling large estates. To run these estates and have the comfortable life that they wished, they needed lots of labor; the cheaper the better. So the colonial Government put a tax on each adult male where he had to work six months per year to pay the tax which was then used for the benefit of the settlers. The settlers were harsh and cruel to their African laborers.
The Kikuyu homeland is on the slopes of Mount Kenya. The amount of land they had was small for the population and consequently many of them were forced onto the settler's estates to work for them. But the Kikuyu, as everyone admits, are a very industrious, hard-working people who early on saw the benefits of education. Others became the low-level functionaries that any Government needs.
During the WWII many young men were drafted into the British army (my father-in-law was in Malawi and Burma!) and served wherever needed. Their eyes were opened by what they saw and when they returned to Kenya after the war, they found that they were given the same menial, low-paying dead end work. By the early 1950's this dissatisfaction gave rise to a protest movement called "Mau Mau." This was mostly among the Kikuyu. They forced people to take an oath to oppose the British rule. Perhaps 90% of the Kikuyu in Central Province on Mount Kenya took the oath, willingly and unwillingly. The remaining 10% were the loyalists who worked for the British colonial Government. Although Jomo Kenyatta was jailed as a Mau Mau leader, they soon realized that he was really a loyalist--his son, Peter Kenyatta, with Jomo Kenyatta's blessing, was one of the leaders of the loyalists. Kenyatta was separated from the other Mau Mau leaders.
The suppression of Mau Mau was brutal in extreme. Percentage wise more people died during the suppression of Mau Mau during the 1950's than during the 1994 Rwandan genocide--torture was prevalent, women and children were put into concentration camps with little food and medical care. Large numbers died. No one should be under the illusion that the British were "better" colonialists than the Germans or Belgians. The technique the British used here was to deny everything with massive cover-ups. Much of this history is only now being uncovered.
During this same time, the British implemented land consolidation in Central Province. The result was that the loyalists received nice, large land holdings at the expense of the Mau Mau people who were in jail. When they returned they found that most of their land was lost. With only small fragments of land remaining they were unable to support their families And were forced either to work for the Kikuyu loyalists or to emigrate to other parts of Kenya which were not so heavily populated--in particular many went to the Rift Valley province.
Some of the most successful loyalists went into business, using the dispossessed Kikuyu to do the labor that they needed. In particular, the Kikuyu many times replaced Indian shopkeepers in small towns and villages. As I will discuss below, many more became the conductors and drivers of the matatus (mini-buses) that dominate Kenya land travel. By now, some of these businessmen have become tycoons.
The British, at the time of independence in 1963, handed the Government to their loyalist supporters. The Kikuyu business tycoons and the Kikuyu political establishment formed a strong bond during the Kenyatta presidency. When Moi, a Kalenjin, took over on Kenyatta's death, he quickly made a deal with the Kikuyu establishment that he would not bother their businesses and they agreed to let him on the Kenyan gravy train, which included gigantic corruption and looting of Government funds. Kibaki was at one time part of both the Kenyatta and Moi Governments.
When people -- including the Kikuyu elite -- got tired of Moi, they tried to replace him. In 1992 and 1997 Moi divided and conquered the opposition. One of the techniques Moi used was to promote violence in his homeland of Rift Valley. In 1992 perhaps 1,000 Luo, Luhya, and Kikuyu were killed by the Kalenjins and more than 100,000 were made homeless (including Malesi). As with the British rule, the Government closed the Rift Valley province to everyone and little is known of the details. When it was over, everything was publicly covered up, but everyone is still very tense, right up to now. As we can learn from the developments that led to the Rwandan genocide, each cycle of violence increases over the previous one. I have no doubt that this is why the people were burned in the church in Rift Valley rather than elsewhere.
But in 2002 Moi was too old for another term and he selected Kenyatta's son, Uhuru Kenyatta, to run for the presidency. The opposition this time decided not to become divided, but united under Kibaki and soundly defeated Uhuru Kenyatta. At this point Kibaki had the opportunity to bring all Kenyans together as a real nation, but he soon dropped all the non-Kikuyu who had helped him into office and the controlling clique became a group of Kikuyu politicians and businessmen. So, in 2007, the others (Luo, Luhya, and Kalenjin) who felt betrayed by Kibaki, joined together in the ODM (Orange Democratic Movement) to oppose Kibaki. Musyoka, a Kamba, stayed out of the coalition and formed his own party--ODM-Kenya.
To summarize, since independence the Kikuyu have directly or indirectly controlled the Government and controlled Kenyan business. Through this time, they continued and promoted the centralized system of Government given to them by the British. The President was all powerful, as he controlled the executive, legislative and judicial branches of Government. It was a hybrid presidential and parliamentary system with the President being all powerful. The 2007 election campaign revolved around "devolvement" meaning decentralizing. Naturally Kibaki and the Kikuyu opposed this since this meant giving up their power to the periphery.
Let us return to the matatu business. There are 80,000 matatus on Kenyan roads, most of which are owned and operated by Kikuyu. I estimate (I sit a lot in the matatus and have ample time to analyze the business) that a matatu has an income of $100,000 per year: on average each Kenyan spends over $200 per year for matutu transportation. The conductor rents the vehicle for the day, including the driver, and pays for gas and other expenses keeping whatever is left over at the end of the day. So, he has to push and push to make sure that he doesn't actually lose money. The relationship between the conductor -- who is always trying to increase the price of the ride, stuff more people into the vehicle, and get the driver to go faster -- leads to amazing antagonism. There is no customer service, but customer dis-service. The riders continually believe that they are being abused and taken advantage of. This happens almost every time one gets into a matatu.
So it is payback time. It is amazing how only Kikuyu shops and homes were burned and everyone else left intact. Those at the bottom are taking it out on those whom they feel are on top. They have no contact with the Kikuyu tycoons and politicians and so they are taking the pent-up rage of forty-four years of independence out on the average Kikuyu in their community. The Kikuyu are then retaliating by killing the other ethnic groups that happen to live in their communities. This also explains why Kibaki (read the Kikuyu elite) wished to stay in power by rigging the election--they will be the losers. At stake here is continuing with the status quo with the Kikuyu on top or changing the essential nature of the Government so that everyone has its piece (but will the Kikuyu be allowed their fair share or will they be punished?).
Malesi will want me to throw in another part of the mix. With the large population increase in the past, there are many youth. Many of these have been educated to the secondary level or even above and then they are left with nothing to do, alienated from Kenyan society. These are the shock troops of the rioters and looters. They see no future so they can easily be turned to violence. This is the tinder and the spark was the announcement that Kibaki won what everyone in western Kenya considers was a rigged election. The youth waited until the result was announced on the radio and then immediately attacked matatus (I saw the plumes of 8 burning matatus), Kikuyu shops and homes, and then the Kikuyu themselves.
Hope this helps you to understand the situation some.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Dear All,
I suspect that many of you do not have a clear understanding why a rigged election could produce such violence as burning women and children alive in a church. This email is to give a brief historical background of why Kenya has seemingly so suddenly erupted into ethnic violence.
The British colonized Kenya early in the 20th Century. The nature of colonialism was total control from a strong center. In the case of Kenya, there were British settlers, few in actual numbers, but each controlling large estates. To run these estates and have the comfortable life that they wished, they needed lots of labor; the cheaper the better. So the colonial Government put a tax on each adult male where he had to work six months per year to pay the tax which was then used for the benefit of the settlers. The settlers were harsh and cruel to their African laborers.
The Kikuyu homeland is on the slopes of Mount Kenya. The amount of land they had was small for the population and consequently many of them were forced onto the settler's estates to work for them. But the Kikuyu, as everyone admits, are a very industrious, hard-working people who early on saw the benefits of education. Others became the low-level functionaries that any Government needs.
During the WWII many young men were drafted into the British army (my father-in-law was in Malawi and Burma!) and served wherever needed. Their eyes were opened by what they saw and when they returned to Kenya after the war, they found that they were given the same menial, low-paying dead end work. By the early 1950's this dissatisfaction gave rise to a protest movement called "Mau Mau." This was mostly among the Kikuyu. They forced people to take an oath to oppose the British rule. Perhaps 90% of the Kikuyu in Central Province on Mount Kenya took the oath, willingly and unwillingly. The remaining 10% were the loyalists who worked for the British colonial Government. Although Jomo Kenyatta was jailed as a Mau Mau leader, they soon realized that he was really a loyalist--his son, Peter Kenyatta, with Jomo Kenyatta's blessing, was one of the leaders of the loyalists. Kenyatta was separated from the other Mau Mau leaders.
The suppression of Mau Mau was brutal in extreme. Percentage wise more people died during the suppression of Mau Mau during the 1950's than during the 1994 Rwandan genocide--torture was prevalent, women and children were put into concentration camps with little food and medical care. Large numbers died. No one should be under the illusion that the British were "better" colonialists than the Germans or Belgians. The technique the British used here was to deny everything with massive cover-ups. Much of this history is only now being uncovered.
During this same time, the British implemented land consolidation in Central Province. The result was that the loyalists received nice, large land holdings at the expense of the Mau Mau people who were in jail. When they returned they found that most of their land was lost. With only small fragments of land remaining they were unable to support their families And were forced either to work for the Kikuyu loyalists or to emigrate to other parts of Kenya which were not so heavily populated--in particular many went to the Rift Valley province.
Some of the most successful loyalists went into business, using the dispossessed Kikuyu to do the labor that they needed. In particular, the Kikuyu many times replaced Indian shopkeepers in small towns and villages. As I will discuss below, many more became the conductors and drivers of the matatus (mini-buses) that dominate Kenya land travel. By now, some of these businessmen have become tycoons.
The British, at the time of independence in 1963, handed the Government to their loyalist supporters. The Kikuyu business tycoons and the Kikuyu political establishment formed a strong bond during the Kenyatta presidency. When Moi, a Kalenjin, took over on Kenyatta's death, he quickly made a deal with the Kikuyu establishment that he would not bother their businesses and they agreed to let him on the Kenyan gravy train, which included gigantic corruption and looting of Government funds. Kibaki was at one time part of both the Kenyatta and Moi Governments.
When people -- including the Kikuyu elite -- got tired of Moi, they tried to replace him. In 1992 and 1997 Moi divided and conquered the opposition. One of the techniques Moi used was to promote violence in his homeland of Rift Valley. In 1992 perhaps 1,000 Luo, Luhya, and Kikuyu were killed by the Kalenjins and more than 100,000 were made homeless (including Malesi). As with the British rule, the Government closed the Rift Valley province to everyone and little is known of the details. When it was over, everything was publicly covered up, but everyone is still very tense, right up to now. As we can learn from the developments that led to the Rwandan genocide, each cycle of violence increases over the previous one. I have no doubt that this is why the people were burned in the church in Rift Valley rather than elsewhere.
But in 2002 Moi was too old for another term and he selected Kenyatta's son, Uhuru Kenyatta, to run for the presidency. The opposition this time decided not to become divided, but united under Kibaki and soundly defeated Uhuru Kenyatta. At this point Kibaki had the opportunity to bring all Kenyans together as a real nation, but he soon dropped all the non-Kikuyu who had helped him into office and the controlling clique became a group of Kikuyu politicians and businessmen. So, in 2007, the others (Luo, Luhya, and Kalenjin) who felt betrayed by Kibaki, joined together in the ODM (Orange Democratic Movement) to oppose Kibaki. Musyoka, a Kamba, stayed out of the coalition and formed his own party--ODM-Kenya.
To summarize, since independence the Kikuyu have directly or indirectly controlled the Government and controlled Kenyan business. Through this time, they continued and promoted the centralized system of Government given to them by the British. The President was all powerful, as he controlled the executive, legislative and judicial branches of Government. It was a hybrid presidential and parliamentary system with the President being all powerful. The 2007 election campaign revolved around "devolvement" meaning decentralizing. Naturally Kibaki and the Kikuyu opposed this since this meant giving up their power to the periphery.
Let us return to the matatu business. There are 80,000 matatus on Kenyan roads, most of which are owned and operated by Kikuyu. I estimate (I sit a lot in the matatus and have ample time to analyze the business) that a matatu has an income of $100,000 per year: on average each Kenyan spends over $200 per year for matutu transportation. The conductor rents the vehicle for the day, including the driver, and pays for gas and other expenses keeping whatever is left over at the end of the day. So, he has to push and push to make sure that he doesn't actually lose money. The relationship between the conductor -- who is always trying to increase the price of the ride, stuff more people into the vehicle, and get the driver to go faster -- leads to amazing antagonism. There is no customer service, but customer dis-service. The riders continually believe that they are being abused and taken advantage of. This happens almost every time one gets into a matatu.
So it is payback time. It is amazing how only Kikuyu shops and homes were burned and everyone else left intact. Those at the bottom are taking it out on those whom they feel are on top. They have no contact with the Kikuyu tycoons and politicians and so they are taking the pent-up rage of forty-four years of independence out on the average Kikuyu in their community. The Kikuyu are then retaliating by killing the other ethnic groups that happen to live in their communities. This also explains why Kibaki (read the Kikuyu elite) wished to stay in power by rigging the election--they will be the losers. At stake here is continuing with the status quo with the Kikuyu on top or changing the essential nature of the Government so that everyone has its piece (but will the Kikuyu be allowed their fair share or will they be punished?).
Malesi will want me to throw in another part of the mix. With the large population increase in the past, there are many youth. Many of these have been educated to the secondary level or even above and then they are left with nothing to do, alienated from Kenyan society. These are the shock troops of the rioters and looters. They see no future so they can easily be turned to violence. This is the tinder and the spark was the announcement that Kibaki won what everyone in western Kenya considers was a rigged election. The youth waited until the result was announced on the radio and then immediately attacked matatus (I saw the plumes of 8 burning matatus), Kikuyu shops and homes, and then the Kikuyu themselves.
Hope this helps you to understand the situation some.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Post election report 4 - Jan 2
January 2, 2008
Dear All,
I learned one thing this morning--it is cold at 5000 feet above sea level on the equator at 5:00 AM on the back of an open truck. A relative obtained a truck to carry us back home. He is a policeman so there was an armed guard on the truck. There were seven family members being transported. We were told to be ready by 4:00 AM so we got up at 3:30 AM. I was hoping that the this would be African time so we would leave at 6:00 AM when it was getting light out. But he got there at 5:00. The ride, besides being cold and very bumpy, was uneventful. There were almost no vehicles on the road--in two hours we passed less than ten and most of these were near Kakamega. We crossed four roadblocks where youth had put stones to stop vehicles--one was right by the Friends Peace Center--Lubao sign! When it was dark it was difficult to tell what damage had been done, but when we reached home, there were about ten shops burned and/or looted.
I walked through our town a half hour ago. Most shops are closed--those that are open are selling out of goods. No calling cards so I can't add time to my computer unless someone with access to calling cards can shambaza (that's the word they use here even in English) where one person can send cell phone time to another person. There was no sign of any Kikuyu staying at the police station.
For those who know the FUM staff of New England Yearly Meeting, she decided to go to the guest house at Kaimosi Hospital after the election and then got stuck there. We have been in constant SMS communication [text messaging]. She just returned safely to Kisumu.
We expect that tomorrow may be another violent day as the ODM party [Orange Democratic Movement] is doing their own inauguration in Nairobi--I would not be surprised if a million people showed up for this in Nariobi. The inauguration has been banned and the ODM leaders threatened with jail. If there is a large crowd, and if it is banned (and the leaders jailed!!!), there may be extensive violence in Nairobi. Kibaki has finally agreed to negotiate, but Raila (smelling victory) has refused until Kibaki has agreed to step down. The Head of the Election Commission admits he was pressured to give the election to Kibaki. The EU commission head says there was much rigging. In fact it was so blatant and sloppily done that I can't believe that the Kibaki Government thought they could get away with it.
The death toll since the election is supposed to be 284, but I suspect it is much higher. It is in the Government's interest to keep the toll down (if they can rig an election, they surely can rig a body count). I doubt small numbers from such places as Mbale and Chavekali, which I mentioned in a previous report, are part of the total. And there are many, many little towns like these in Western Kenya. There is a report that almost 50, mostly women and children, were burned to death in a church in Eldoret. This is in the Rift Province which has a much larger number of Kikuyu than Western Province.
There is a report that 10,000 armed Kalejin youth from the Eldoret area (there were 2000 people who burned down the church) are marching on Burnt Forest, an area with many Kikuyu where there have been clashes in the past. If this kind of thing is true, then we may be in for a real bloodbath on the scale of the Rwandan genocide. It is possible that the violence has gotten out of control so that the political leaders, the police, and army may not be able to control it even if there is a political settlement.
As transportation is shut down, shortages become greater. Kisumu, which was shut down the day after the election, is already reporting food and water shortages. We have 14 and a half 200 pound bags of maize in our house so we can eat "ugali" (corn mush) for a very long time. I don't like the bread here very much, but after not having any for almost a week, I would look forward to it. But under the circumstance we eat what we've got.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Dear All,
I learned one thing this morning--it is cold at 5000 feet above sea level on the equator at 5:00 AM on the back of an open truck. A relative obtained a truck to carry us back home. He is a policeman so there was an armed guard on the truck. There were seven family members being transported. We were told to be ready by 4:00 AM so we got up at 3:30 AM. I was hoping that the this would be African time so we would leave at 6:00 AM when it was getting light out. But he got there at 5:00. The ride, besides being cold and very bumpy, was uneventful. There were almost no vehicles on the road--in two hours we passed less than ten and most of these were near Kakamega. We crossed four roadblocks where youth had put stones to stop vehicles--one was right by the Friends Peace Center--Lubao sign! When it was dark it was difficult to tell what damage had been done, but when we reached home, there were about ten shops burned and/or looted.
I walked through our town a half hour ago. Most shops are closed--those that are open are selling out of goods. No calling cards so I can't add time to my computer unless someone with access to calling cards can shambaza (that's the word they use here even in English) where one person can send cell phone time to another person. There was no sign of any Kikuyu staying at the police station.
For those who know the FUM staff of New England Yearly Meeting, she decided to go to the guest house at Kaimosi Hospital after the election and then got stuck there. We have been in constant SMS communication [text messaging]. She just returned safely to Kisumu.
We expect that tomorrow may be another violent day as the ODM party [Orange Democratic Movement] is doing their own inauguration in Nairobi--I would not be surprised if a million people showed up for this in Nariobi. The inauguration has been banned and the ODM leaders threatened with jail. If there is a large crowd, and if it is banned (and the leaders jailed!!!), there may be extensive violence in Nairobi. Kibaki has finally agreed to negotiate, but Raila (smelling victory) has refused until Kibaki has agreed to step down. The Head of the Election Commission admits he was pressured to give the election to Kibaki. The EU commission head says there was much rigging. In fact it was so blatant and sloppily done that I can't believe that the Kibaki Government thought they could get away with it.
The death toll since the election is supposed to be 284, but I suspect it is much higher. It is in the Government's interest to keep the toll down (if they can rig an election, they surely can rig a body count). I doubt small numbers from such places as Mbale and Chavekali, which I mentioned in a previous report, are part of the total. And there are many, many little towns like these in Western Kenya. There is a report that almost 50, mostly women and children, were burned to death in a church in Eldoret. This is in the Rift Province which has a much larger number of Kikuyu than Western Province.
There is a report that 10,000 armed Kalejin youth from the Eldoret area (there were 2000 people who burned down the church) are marching on Burnt Forest, an area with many Kikuyu where there have been clashes in the past. If this kind of thing is true, then we may be in for a real bloodbath on the scale of the Rwandan genocide. It is possible that the violence has gotten out of control so that the political leaders, the police, and army may not be able to control it even if there is a political settlement.
As transportation is shut down, shortages become greater. Kisumu, which was shut down the day after the election, is already reporting food and water shortages. We have 14 and a half 200 pound bags of maize in our house so we can eat "ugali" (corn mush) for a very long time. I don't like the bread here very much, but after not having any for almost a week, I would look forward to it. But under the circumstance we eat what we've got.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Post election report 3 - Dec 31
December 31
There is a surreal quiet here at my relative’s house as the country has erupted in violence.
Kenya’s ethnic conflict has erupted pitting Kikuyus against Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin and others.
A source in the police told me that 5 Kikuyus have been killed in Mbale. Most of the Kikuyus in the area around Mbale have fled to the District Commissioner’s Office. Shops owned by Kikuyus have been burned and looted.
In the town of Chavakali, the policeman told me, 30 more Kikuyus have been killed.
I can hear gunshots, I suspect mostly teargas guns, coming from the direction of Chavakali.
Another source has told me 2 other people have been killed in Kakamega. There are no vehicles on the Kisumu/Kakamega road.
In the provinces near my home (Nyanza, Western and the Rift Valley), the countryside is being divided into areas where there are all Kikuyus and other areas were there are no Kikuyus.
At 11 am today, a woman came up the path wailing that her only son was killed in Nakuru (a Kikuyu area). She wailed, "they should have killed Kibaki instead of my son."
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
There is a surreal quiet here at my relative’s house as the country has erupted in violence.
Kenya’s ethnic conflict has erupted pitting Kikuyus against Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin and others.
A source in the police told me that 5 Kikuyus have been killed in Mbale. Most of the Kikuyus in the area around Mbale have fled to the District Commissioner’s Office. Shops owned by Kikuyus have been burned and looted.
In the town of Chavakali, the policeman told me, 30 more Kikuyus have been killed.
I can hear gunshots, I suspect mostly teargas guns, coming from the direction of Chavakali.
Another source has told me 2 other people have been killed in Kakamega. There are no vehicles on the Kisumu/Kakamega road.
In the provinces near my home (Nyanza, Western and the Rift Valley), the countryside is being divided into areas where there are all Kikuyus and other areas were there are no Kikuyus.
At 11 am today, a woman came up the path wailing that her only son was killed in Nakuru (a Kikuyu area). She wailed, "they should have killed Kibaki instead of my son."
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Post election report 2 - Dec 30
December 30
It is around 11 pm in Kenya now and Kibaki was declared the winner of the presidential election and was immediately sworn in for a second term. The challenger, Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement, said it would name a parallel government.
The international community should not recognize the Kibaki regime.
Within 15 minutes of the announcement, 6 Matatus were burned and shots could be heard in Mbale, Kenya.
In Kakemenga houses are burning and there are running battles in the street.
Near my home, a Kikuyu was attacked and fled to the Police Station. Kikuyus shops have been burned.
Army entered Kisumu on Saturday night. Americans there are looking for ways to go to Uganda.
We have little information. There are no papers, no calling cards and the radio is useless. The only thing being broadcast is that everything is under control and remain calm.
I am still at my relative’s home in the countryside. We are fine. If you want to get in touch with me, [contact Dawn A or Dawn R for info].
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
It is around 11 pm in Kenya now and Kibaki was declared the winner of the presidential election and was immediately sworn in for a second term. The challenger, Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement, said it would name a parallel government.
The international community should not recognize the Kibaki regime.
Within 15 minutes of the announcement, 6 Matatus were burned and shots could be heard in Mbale, Kenya.
In Kakemenga houses are burning and there are running battles in the street.
Near my home, a Kikuyu was attacked and fled to the Police Station. Kikuyus shops have been burned.
Army entered Kisumu on Saturday night. Americans there are looking for ways to go to Uganda.
We have little information. There are no papers, no calling cards and the radio is useless. The only thing being broadcast is that everything is under control and remain calm.
I am still at my relative’s home in the countryside. We are fine. If you want to get in touch with me, [contact Dawn A or Dawn R for info].
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Post election report 1 - Dec 30
From our Friend in Kenya:
December 30
Currently I am at a relative's house in the countryside with no electricity or e-mail. We were supposed to return home today but due to rioting we are unable to travel.
Massive fraud has taken place in the elections, especially in Kikuyu areas. There has been rioting in the cities that have targeted Kikuyus vehicles and homes.
We are staying here until things quiet down and will report more on the situation when I return to our home.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
December 30
Currently I am at a relative's house in the countryside with no electricity or e-mail. We were supposed to return home today but due to rioting we are unable to travel.
Massive fraud has taken place in the elections, especially in Kikuyu areas. There has been rioting in the cities that have targeted Kikuyus vehicles and homes.
We are staying here until things quiet down and will report more on the situation when I return to our home.
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
December 25 pre-election report from Friends
Friends, we have received regular and insightful reports from a well known Friend living in Kenya. Here you can read them all in one place. As these are quite forthright and blunt, I have done some editing out of concern for our friends' safety. Note that this pre-election posting was quite prescient.
Report on Kenya Elections, December 2007 (circulated prior to national election)
Every five years, Kenya has an election for president, members of parliament (PM), and county councils. December 27 is Election Day here. Elections in Kenya used to be completely rigged with the one-party government of Jomo Kenyatta, followed by Daniel Arap Moi, nominating whomever they wanted. For PM and county council there might be more than one candidate, and unlike the US where incumbency almost guarantees re-election, incumbency here is a great liability as the electorate frequently voted even powerful people out of office. There is talk in the country of throwing out 90% of the current PM’s and this might even happen! In 1992 multi-partyism was re-introduced, but President Moi was able to keep the opposition fragmented and won the 1992 and 1997 elections. However, in 2002 everyone united against him and he was defeated by Kibaki.
Mwai Kibaki, 76, is the current President and he is running for a second and last term on the PNU, Party of National Unity, which was formed only a few months ago as his election vehicle. His main challenger is Raila Odinga, 62, the son of one of the major early figures in Kenyan post-independence—Moi put him in jail for eight years. Raila’s party is ODM, Orange Democratic Movement, which was formed in 2005 to successfully defeat a new Constitution promoted by the Government. The last is Musyoka Kalonzo, of the ODM-Kenya party, Orange Democratic Movement—Kenya, who was also involved in the defeat of the Constitution. Kibaki is Kikuyu, the largest, most dominate tribe in the country based around Mount Kenya; Raila is Luo, the second largest tribe from around Kisumu; and Musyoka is Kamba, from Eastern Province. There are many polls and they have indicated that Raila is ahead of Kibaki from 1% to 8% and Musyoka is trailing badly at 15%, almost all his votes coming from the Kamba tribe. If you would like to know the level of discourse here, the Luo are the only major tribe in Kenya who do not perform male circumcision. People are told not to vote for Raila because he is not circumcised.
Kenya has some weird laws which were put in to place to keep the old political guard in power. One is that the President has to win his own parliamentary seat. This could be very significant because Raila’s constituency is in Nairobi and I have heard that there will be a lot of rigging and corruption in his district so that he loses. If he loses his seat and wins the popular vote, I predict significant violence in the country. Yet Kibaki is not off the hook as another rule says that a presidential candidate must have at least 25% of the vote in 5 of the 8 provinces. He is definitely not getting 25% in Nyanza Province where Raila comes from and it is possible that he will not get 25% in Western, Coast, and Northeastern Province. Then what?
With this background, I want to focus on Lugari District, which is a very volatile one. This district is in Western Province where the vast majority of the population is Luhya. Lugari District was part of the White highlands reserved for British settlers until independence in 1963. It was then divided up into plots and sold at a discount to people from Western Province. Yet tribalism never stops. The Luhya are divided into 14 sub-tribes. The biggest is Maragoli from the south and many of them have moved to Lugari because Vihiga District is very crowded. Another large group in Lugari comes from the Bugusu sub-tribe from nearby Mount Elgon.
For the first time ever, the political parties held primaries—they were chaotic. In Lugari, where whoever gets the nod from ODM is most likely to win, the ODM primary was to be on Friday. But there were no ballots for the 8 candidates: people milled around in town for most of the day, and nothing happened. Then on Saturday the ballots showed up and folks went to the local PAG church (Pentecostal Assemblies of God) to vote. A voter went and was told that even though this voting place was a block from our house, she had to go to another one about a mile away. She didn’t go. Things seemed to be going orderly at that time.
Why are there so many candidates—the general election has over 2,000 candidates for 212 seats or more than 10 per seat? This means that you can win with a rather small percentage of the votes. The reason is that PM’s are paid $190,000 per year in salary and benefits (one of the highest in the world) in a country where the official per capita income is $600 and my estimate is $3,000. The only qualification outside of being a Kenyan citizen is to be fluent in Swahili and English.
Sunday (Dec. 23) when I was returning from Church I passed by the ODM office. There were many people standing outside and horrendous shouting from within the building. The outgoing MP had lost the election and he assaulted the Returning Officer and later had a case filed against him. In many of the primaries the candidates favored by the political establishment lost – including many MP’s, ministers, and assistant ministers. These losers quickly jumped to become a candidate of one of the other 140 or so registered parties—there was one party that advertised in the paper that if you paid a certain amount you could be a candidate on their party ticket. In this case, the ODM hierarchy offered the outgoing MP a try on the NARC party ticket which is allied with ODM. I think he has little chance of winning.
So let us turn to Wycliffe Mudavadi. For us, an important fact is that he is a Quaker who frequently comes to church in Nairobi (and perhaps upcountry). More important for most Luhya he is a Maragoli. In 2002 Mudavali was made vice-president by Moi, in the hope of getting Luhya votes. This did not happen and Mudavadi lost his parliamentary seat. He quickly saw his error and during the ODM campaign in 2005 he joined the anti-government coalition. He is now the point man for ODM in Western Province and the vice-president designate if ODM wins.
But then Lugari District is home to a former PM, named Jirongo, who is the leader of his own party, KADDU (Kenya African Development D? Union) which has 97 candidates running for MP across the country. He is putting up a spirited campaign. Kibaki’s party, PNU, has a candidate but I don’t think he is a factor at all in this district. There are a total of eight candidates. I predict that Musungu, the ODM candidate, will win here, but this may be because he is a Maragoli and I hear mostly from other Maragoli. Our electrician is the ODM youth leader for Lugari District. Needless to say our electricity which needs attention has not received it. My sons printed up a shirt in the US which is orange (the color of the Orange Democratic Movement) saying, “Piga Chura, Chagua 2008, Barack Obama”—meaning “Vote, Choose in 2008, Barack Obama.” The electrician begged me for it so I gave it to him and he was wearing it every day.
There has been much more violence in this district. One defeated ODM candidate, a woman, was assassinated on her way home from an ODM meeting in Nairobi. Just last Saturday we learned that two women, who were given funds to bribe other women, were attacked by the youth of an opposing candidate: the money was stolen; their dresses were ripped apart so that they were naked. Bribing, which is supposed to be illegal—the laws in Kenya are actually very good on the whole, but the problem here is that no one thinks they need to abide by the law – prevails everywhere. In Vihiga, women were going to a certain house to get a half-kilo of sugar. On the national level, when Lucy Kibaki, the wife of the president, gave a speech to women in the Coast Province, each one was give a 1000/- note ($15.87) in reward for listening to her. This was reported in the newspaper but is considered nothing out of the ordinary.
To-date twenty-five people have been killed due to the elections. An assistant minister’s Government vehicle was stopped with traditional weapons—machetes, clubs, etc.--and he denied any involvement. Again the law states that anyone using violence will be disbarred. Three candidates have been fined 100,000/- ($1587) for inciting violence, but they remain in the election. There are very few women candidates, around 10%, and even less will win. Women, in addition to men, have been beaten up by rivals including one female candidate who was hospitalized. Every candidate from the President on down had to visit her in the hospital to condemn violence against women. One of the top ODM officials, slated to be the Prime Minister when a new constitution is developed, was attacked in the Kisii area as he got out of his helicopter and had to be hospitalized. Two minutes before the attack a senior minister in the Kibaki Government had been shown on TV talking to the leader of the attackers who had a bow and arrow. He was not even reprimanded.
Because in the past the polls have consistently shown the Government side to be higher than the actual results, I predict that Raila is going to win the election by about 8% or 9%. ODM will also have a majority in the parliament. If Kibaki wins and ODM has a majority in the parliament, then Kibaki will start bribing the ODM supporters to join his side—there are a lot of ministerial and assistant ministerial positions to hand out. If there is any kind of deadlock as I outlined above, then there could be real trouble here in Kenya.
So I have signed up to be an election monitor here. I have to be at the polling place by 5:30 a.m. and probably will not leave until 11:00 o’clock p.m.; after the ballots have all been counted. Quaker Peace Network-Africa has 49 Kenyan and 29 international monitors. AGLI is helping to support the Kenyan monitors. Hezron Masitsa in Nairobi and Rose Imbega for Kitale are the QPN organizers. The election monitors here in Western Kenya include many of the top leaders of the Friends Church in Kenya—this is a very good sign for arousing more interest in Quaker peacemaking in Western Kenya. We went to the training meeting yesterday and the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) surely has done a fine job of outlining what everyone should do. My job is just to watch for and notice any one of a number of infractions. Many of the international observers will be folks from Burundi, Rwanda, and Congo well known to AGLI. We were given a T-shirt with QPN-Africa on the front and “Quaker Peace Network, Friends Church, Kenya, 2007, Election Observers Team” on the back.
QPN got interested in Election Monitoring when at the QPN meeting in Kibuye, Rwanda, in October 2003, a Kenyan came and spoke to us for a day about how the churches, mosques, temples, and synagogues in Kenya united to keep the election from being stolen (again) by Moi. He was soundly defeated with 31% of the vote to Kibaki’s 68% and the election observers were able to announce the results before the Electoral Commission itself.
We all realized after this presentation that Election Monitoring is a critical component of peacemaking in Africa and the Quaker Peace Network has taken on this international task. QPN has had teams previously for 3 elections in Burundi, 3 in Congo, and the Constitutional voting in Kenya in 2005.
One of the requirements is that the ballots are counted immediately at the end of the voting at 5:00 PM with everyone watching the count. The results then must be posted on the outside of the voting station — I will write down the totals to make sure they match what is officially presented by the ECK. It is going to be a very loooooooooooong day. I will report again as soon as I have recovered!!!
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Report on Kenya Elections, December 2007 (circulated prior to national election)
Every five years, Kenya has an election for president, members of parliament (PM), and county councils. December 27 is Election Day here. Elections in Kenya used to be completely rigged with the one-party government of Jomo Kenyatta, followed by Daniel Arap Moi, nominating whomever they wanted. For PM and county council there might be more than one candidate, and unlike the US where incumbency almost guarantees re-election, incumbency here is a great liability as the electorate frequently voted even powerful people out of office. There is talk in the country of throwing out 90% of the current PM’s and this might even happen! In 1992 multi-partyism was re-introduced, but President Moi was able to keep the opposition fragmented and won the 1992 and 1997 elections. However, in 2002 everyone united against him and he was defeated by Kibaki.
Mwai Kibaki, 76, is the current President and he is running for a second and last term on the PNU, Party of National Unity, which was formed only a few months ago as his election vehicle. His main challenger is Raila Odinga, 62, the son of one of the major early figures in Kenyan post-independence—Moi put him in jail for eight years. Raila’s party is ODM, Orange Democratic Movement, which was formed in 2005 to successfully defeat a new Constitution promoted by the Government. The last is Musyoka Kalonzo, of the ODM-Kenya party, Orange Democratic Movement—Kenya, who was also involved in the defeat of the Constitution. Kibaki is Kikuyu, the largest, most dominate tribe in the country based around Mount Kenya; Raila is Luo, the second largest tribe from around Kisumu; and Musyoka is Kamba, from Eastern Province. There are many polls and they have indicated that Raila is ahead of Kibaki from 1% to 8% and Musyoka is trailing badly at 15%, almost all his votes coming from the Kamba tribe. If you would like to know the level of discourse here, the Luo are the only major tribe in Kenya who do not perform male circumcision. People are told not to vote for Raila because he is not circumcised.
Kenya has some weird laws which were put in to place to keep the old political guard in power. One is that the President has to win his own parliamentary seat. This could be very significant because Raila’s constituency is in Nairobi and I have heard that there will be a lot of rigging and corruption in his district so that he loses. If he loses his seat and wins the popular vote, I predict significant violence in the country. Yet Kibaki is not off the hook as another rule says that a presidential candidate must have at least 25% of the vote in 5 of the 8 provinces. He is definitely not getting 25% in Nyanza Province where Raila comes from and it is possible that he will not get 25% in Western, Coast, and Northeastern Province. Then what?
With this background, I want to focus on Lugari District, which is a very volatile one. This district is in Western Province where the vast majority of the population is Luhya. Lugari District was part of the White highlands reserved for British settlers until independence in 1963. It was then divided up into plots and sold at a discount to people from Western Province. Yet tribalism never stops. The Luhya are divided into 14 sub-tribes. The biggest is Maragoli from the south and many of them have moved to Lugari because Vihiga District is very crowded. Another large group in Lugari comes from the Bugusu sub-tribe from nearby Mount Elgon.
For the first time ever, the political parties held primaries—they were chaotic. In Lugari, where whoever gets the nod from ODM is most likely to win, the ODM primary was to be on Friday. But there were no ballots for the 8 candidates: people milled around in town for most of the day, and nothing happened. Then on Saturday the ballots showed up and folks went to the local PAG church (Pentecostal Assemblies of God) to vote. A voter went and was told that even though this voting place was a block from our house, she had to go to another one about a mile away. She didn’t go. Things seemed to be going orderly at that time.
Why are there so many candidates—the general election has over 2,000 candidates for 212 seats or more than 10 per seat? This means that you can win with a rather small percentage of the votes. The reason is that PM’s are paid $190,000 per year in salary and benefits (one of the highest in the world) in a country where the official per capita income is $600 and my estimate is $3,000. The only qualification outside of being a Kenyan citizen is to be fluent in Swahili and English.
Sunday (Dec. 23) when I was returning from Church I passed by the ODM office. There were many people standing outside and horrendous shouting from within the building. The outgoing MP had lost the election and he assaulted the Returning Officer and later had a case filed against him. In many of the primaries the candidates favored by the political establishment lost – including many MP’s, ministers, and assistant ministers. These losers quickly jumped to become a candidate of one of the other 140 or so registered parties—there was one party that advertised in the paper that if you paid a certain amount you could be a candidate on their party ticket. In this case, the ODM hierarchy offered the outgoing MP a try on the NARC party ticket which is allied with ODM. I think he has little chance of winning.
So let us turn to Wycliffe Mudavadi. For us, an important fact is that he is a Quaker who frequently comes to church in Nairobi (and perhaps upcountry). More important for most Luhya he is a Maragoli. In 2002 Mudavali was made vice-president by Moi, in the hope of getting Luhya votes. This did not happen and Mudavadi lost his parliamentary seat. He quickly saw his error and during the ODM campaign in 2005 he joined the anti-government coalition. He is now the point man for ODM in Western Province and the vice-president designate if ODM wins.
But then Lugari District is home to a former PM, named Jirongo, who is the leader of his own party, KADDU (Kenya African Development D? Union) which has 97 candidates running for MP across the country. He is putting up a spirited campaign. Kibaki’s party, PNU, has a candidate but I don’t think he is a factor at all in this district. There are a total of eight candidates. I predict that Musungu, the ODM candidate, will win here, but this may be because he is a Maragoli and I hear mostly from other Maragoli. Our electrician is the ODM youth leader for Lugari District. Needless to say our electricity which needs attention has not received it. My sons printed up a shirt in the US which is orange (the color of the Orange Democratic Movement) saying, “Piga Chura, Chagua 2008, Barack Obama”—meaning “Vote, Choose in 2008, Barack Obama.” The electrician begged me for it so I gave it to him and he was wearing it every day.
There has been much more violence in this district. One defeated ODM candidate, a woman, was assassinated on her way home from an ODM meeting in Nairobi. Just last Saturday we learned that two women, who were given funds to bribe other women, were attacked by the youth of an opposing candidate: the money was stolen; their dresses were ripped apart so that they were naked. Bribing, which is supposed to be illegal—the laws in Kenya are actually very good on the whole, but the problem here is that no one thinks they need to abide by the law – prevails everywhere. In Vihiga, women were going to a certain house to get a half-kilo of sugar. On the national level, when Lucy Kibaki, the wife of the president, gave a speech to women in the Coast Province, each one was give a 1000/- note ($15.87) in reward for listening to her. This was reported in the newspaper but is considered nothing out of the ordinary.
To-date twenty-five people have been killed due to the elections. An assistant minister’s Government vehicle was stopped with traditional weapons—machetes, clubs, etc.--and he denied any involvement. Again the law states that anyone using violence will be disbarred. Three candidates have been fined 100,000/- ($1587) for inciting violence, but they remain in the election. There are very few women candidates, around 10%, and even less will win. Women, in addition to men, have been beaten up by rivals including one female candidate who was hospitalized. Every candidate from the President on down had to visit her in the hospital to condemn violence against women. One of the top ODM officials, slated to be the Prime Minister when a new constitution is developed, was attacked in the Kisii area as he got out of his helicopter and had to be hospitalized. Two minutes before the attack a senior minister in the Kibaki Government had been shown on TV talking to the leader of the attackers who had a bow and arrow. He was not even reprimanded.
Because in the past the polls have consistently shown the Government side to be higher than the actual results, I predict that Raila is going to win the election by about 8% or 9%. ODM will also have a majority in the parliament. If Kibaki wins and ODM has a majority in the parliament, then Kibaki will start bribing the ODM supporters to join his side—there are a lot of ministerial and assistant ministerial positions to hand out. If there is any kind of deadlock as I outlined above, then there could be real trouble here in Kenya.
So I have signed up to be an election monitor here. I have to be at the polling place by 5:30 a.m. and probably will not leave until 11:00 o’clock p.m.; after the ballots have all been counted. Quaker Peace Network-Africa has 49 Kenyan and 29 international monitors. AGLI is helping to support the Kenyan monitors. Hezron Masitsa in Nairobi and Rose Imbega for Kitale are the QPN organizers. The election monitors here in Western Kenya include many of the top leaders of the Friends Church in Kenya—this is a very good sign for arousing more interest in Quaker peacemaking in Western Kenya. We went to the training meeting yesterday and the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) surely has done a fine job of outlining what everyone should do. My job is just to watch for and notice any one of a number of infractions. Many of the international observers will be folks from Burundi, Rwanda, and Congo well known to AGLI. We were given a T-shirt with QPN-Africa on the front and “Quaker Peace Network, Friends Church, Kenya, 2007, Election Observers Team” on the back.
QPN got interested in Election Monitoring when at the QPN meeting in Kibuye, Rwanda, in October 2003, a Kenyan came and spoke to us for a day about how the churches, mosques, temples, and synagogues in Kenya united to keep the election from being stolen (again) by Moi. He was soundly defeated with 31% of the vote to Kibaki’s 68% and the election observers were able to announce the results before the Electoral Commission itself.
We all realized after this presentation that Election Monitoring is a critical component of peacemaking in Africa and the Quaker Peace Network has taken on this international task. QPN has had teams previously for 3 elections in Burundi, 3 in Congo, and the Constitutional voting in Kenya in 2005.
One of the requirements is that the ballots are counted immediately at the end of the voting at 5:00 PM with everyone watching the count. The results then must be posted on the outside of the voting station — I will write down the totals to make sure they match what is officially presented by the ECK. It is going to be a very loooooooooooong day. I will report again as soon as I have recovered!!!
Peace,
Dave Z
AGLI
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)